The Sunday Night Soccer presented by Continental Tire roadshow hits Cincinnati for the first time this season for a match loaded with both Supporters’ Shield and Audi MLS Cup Playoffs implications.
On top: FC Cincinnati, with the Shield in their sights, host a red-hot Orlando City side at TQL Stadium (7 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV+).
These have been two of the better teams in the league (and Eastern Conference) virtually all year, packed with firepower and led by two of the best players in the league. We’re talking can’t-miss stuff as the regular season thunders towards Decision Day.
FC Cincinnati
- I don’t think anyone in MLS, besides that guy in Miami, produces as many highlights as Evander. The Brazilian No. 10 was the subject of a league-record cash transfer fee last winter, and he’s been worth every penny.
- Brenner was once a club-record signing in his own right. The former DP No. 9 is back on loan after an unhappy year-and-a-half in Italy; he’s made a big splash in his return with three goals in three starts.
- He flies under the radar, but there’s arguably no more important player on Cincy’s roster than Pavel Bucha, the ironman No. 8 who’s played all but 17 minutes since the end of May. His ball progression in central midfield is irreplaceable.
Orlando City
- Martín Ojeda is Orlando’s answer to Evander. He’s also got 30 total goal contributions (17g/13a for Evander; 16g/14a for Ojeda), and is also a DP, South American No. 10. As he goes, so go the Lions.
- Orlando’s captain, Robin Jansson, is probably my favorite center back in MLS this decade. He has an unmatched ability on the ball, initiating build-outs with his ability to carry the ball through the first line of opposing pressure, coupled with pinpoint passing. Their dynamism starts at the back, and it’s largely because of him.
- Right back Alex Freeman burst onto the scene earlier this year and has been so good pushing into the attack (he gets as many box touches per game as DP attackers like Wilfried Zaha and Cincy’s own Kévin Denkey) that head coach Oscar Pareja literally changed his entire system to feature the homegrown. Oh, and he was No. 2 on my 22 Under 22 list this year, so… real, real good player.
Cincy aren’t quite locked into the top two in the East – they drop points here and suddenly it’s relatively open, especially after Miami climbed to within three points (with two games in hand) after beating New York City FC on Wednesday night. So they’re still fighting for a place in the top two, no doubt about that.
But really, they’re fighting for the Shield. The 2023 version remains the only trophy they’ve won in their MLS existence, and while the ultimate goal this season is to win the final game of the year – that’d be MLS Cup on Dec. 6 – it’s definitely a “¿por qué no los dos?” kind of situation.
As it stands, the Garys are just two points behind first-place Philadelphia. Any slip-up from the Union and the door is suddenly open.
Playoff positioning. Home-field advantage. Another bullet point that says they’re a legitimate threat to beat the best in the East and make MLS Cup – they’ve taken out Miami and Columbus in recent weeks. Adding Cincy to that tally would make it all feel undeniable.
It’s not about narratives or anything else like that at this point in the season; it’s about points, and doing whatever it takes to get them so that you’ve got the best path possible to a trophy in December.
As it stands now, they’re sixth in the East, but just two behind fourth-place Charlotte. The flip side is they’re just one point above the eighth-place Crew, and are desperately trying to stay out of the Wild Card Match.
So yeah. Points and playoff positioning. That’s the whole thing.
FC Cincinnati
I’ve kind of been banging on about their lack of a discernible tactical plan all year long. Pat Noonan’s got them playing in a 3-4-1-2 with flying wingbacks and Evander under two forwards (it should be Brenner and Denkey this week), with a bunch of the very best players in the league on virtually every line, from front to back.
Yet despite the record, it doesn’t ever quite feel like it’s clicked. They’re out there brute-forcing wins via sheer talent rather than cohesive, back-to-front play, and at times they're weirdly gappy and disorganized. You can see it in their underlying numbers:
- As per FBRef, their expected goal differential is -5.9, just 11th in the East.
- American Soccer Analysis’ even more granular goals-added metric has them at -7.67, which is also 11th in the East.
What this all means is Cincy don’t really have an overall style they can default to in order to take over games. They don’t dominate teams with the ball, and they’re not super-effective at controlling the pitch via any sort of high press, nor are they purely a counterattacking side.
Instead, they’re a team that dominates high-leverage moments in both boxes. Guys like Evander, Brenner and Denkey on one side of the ball, and Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga and Roman Celentano on the other… it hasn’t made for overwhelming soccer, but they’re racking up points because, I mean, how do you stop this?
Left-footed slip-pass to an inch-perfect on-the-run through-ball to a one-time, cross-body finish against what had been a hot goalkeeper… sure. Piece of cake.
If they start stitching together something more coherent down the stretch here, there’s virtually no ceiling with this team.
Orlando City
I mentioned above how Pareja changed his approach to accommodate Freeman, and here’s what that looks like via a network passing graphic:
It’s still a 4-2-3-1 – that’s the formation Pareja’s preferred, with a true No. 10 pulling the strings, since his first head-coaching job in this league – but instead of each fullback taking turns pushing forward, the left back stays home and forms a back three while Freeman basically just becomes a wide attacker.
That means they, more or less, clear out the entire right side for Freeman. The left side, however, is more about creating useful overloads, and this is the other way Pareja’s had to compromise because Ojeda’s not really a classic, game-controlling No. 10. He’s more just a pure attacker who wants to push forward from the left half-space into the left channel, playing off of a No. 9 (usually Luis Muriel, who does a lot of No. 10 things) and outsourcing almost all of the orchestration work to Orlando’s brilliant No. 8, Eduard Atuesta.
The other variable at play here is DP right winger Marco Pašalić, who himself will often cut inside (usually into the right half-space but often directly in Zone 14) as a sort of ad hoc No. 10.
In that way, this team has three or sometimes four different players flexing into and out of the primary playmaking role, and into and out of primary or secondary goal-threat roles. All while whoever’s on the left wing is tasked with stretching the field to occupy the opposing backline.
It’s proven to be very dynamic, pretty successful and quite a bit of fun.
It’ll be the 3-4-1-2, certainly, though there will be obvious questions about how the backline is arrayed and who will partner Bucha in central midfield.
Also, I’m assuming Celentano will be back in the XI after returning to training this week.
We’ll call it a 4-2-3-1, but bear in mind it becomes a 3-2-2-3 in possession. The one note on the XI is that if César Araújo is good to go from the start, he’ll slot in at d-mid in place of Pareja's security blanket, Kyle Smith.
