It’s time for the final edition of the first year of Sunday Night Soccer presented by Continental Tire.
The road show heads back to the heart of Texas, where Austin FC – coming off of a “horrible week,” as head coach Nico Estévez put it – host high-flying LAFC at Q2 Stadium (7 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV+).
This one’s a rescheduled game from earlier in the season, which means the international break has pulled away some of the biggest stars on both sides. But you win with 1-through-30 in MLS, not 1-through-11. Which means both teams get one last depth test before Decision Day.
Let’s dive in.
Austin FC
- Austin's best player all year has been young Owen Wolff, who’s played left winger, attacking midfield and a kind of second forward. He’s been awesome at all three spots and is simply one of the most underrated players in the league. Full stop.
- For the longest time, Brad Stuver was the most underrated goalkeeper in the league, but he finally got his due this summer as an All-Star. He’s been as solid as ever all year, but last week was… rough.
- CJ Fodrey has exactly one start in his MLS career, but he’s been a devastating attacking force off the bench in the second half of this season. With Myrto Uzuni away on international duty, it seems a good chance we'll see Fodrey make start No. 2.
LAFC
- No Son Heung-Min means we'll see a different look from this team up top, and the man most likely to get the call is veteran No. 9 Jeremy Ebobisse. He’s been a match-winner and had a goal in their midweek win over Toronto. LAFC could use some more of that this weekend.
- Also missing is Denis Bouanga, which means there’s playing time open on the wing. It could be a great chance for playmaking winger Andrew Moran to get his third MLS start and show he’s the type of guy who can play the final ball.
- I called Wolff “one of” the most underrated players in the league and not the outright most underrated player in the league because Mark Delgado still exists, folks. Every team he joins gets better; every team he leaves gets worse. His ability to find pockets of space to receive and then move the ball quickly and efficiently into the attack, and the work he does off the ball with sacrificial runs… it goes underappreciated by many. Not by his coaches or teammates, though.
They’re sixth in the Western Conference, five points back of Seattle Sounders FC, which means if they win this, then win on Decision Day, and the Sounders take just one point from their final two games, then the Verde & Black can actually climb to fifth place. I have a tough time imagining that scenario playing out, but math is math.
Conversely, if they take two points or fewer over their final two games, they open themselves up to the chance of dropping into ninth. This would require all three teams directly behind them in the standings to win out, and I’ve gotta tell you, if that happens, then it’s clear the Soccer Gods have got it in for Austin. This wouldn’t be math; this would be divine intervention conspiring against the Verde & Black, and there’s simply no stopping that.
That’s the standings-level “what’s at stake.” On an individual level, it’s another chance for Wolff to prove he’s the leader; for Fodrey (whether he starts or not) to prove he’s a game-changer; and for guys like Besard Sabovic and Mateja Djordjevic, who’ve had up-and-down years, to get some momentum heading into the final match of the season.
These are LAFC’s games in hand that they’ve been sitting on for months, first with their 2-0 win over TFC on Wednesday and now this trip to Texas. And it’s good that these games are coming now, with the Black & Gold in their best form of the season.
But it’s also bad that these games are coming now since, as mentioned above, Son and Bouanga are both away on international duty. Yes, LAFC are already locked into a top-four spot in the West; no, fourth place won't be good enough for them. It would be a disappointment, as a matter of fact, and potentially a terminal one since the one team in the bottom half of the West they (and everyone else) wants to avoid is fifth-place Seattle.
An LAFC-Sounders matchup in Round One is a toss-up; LAFC vs. any of the teams in sixth through ninth? That’s a mismatch.
So yes, this is quite possibly an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs preview – avoid Seattle and you might get Austin in Round One. I'm sure Steve Cherundolo will want his boys to leave a mark.
Two other notes:
Austin
Estévez has had his team sliding from a 3-4-2-1 to a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 all year based upon available personnel and tactical necessity. Sometimes the tactical trickery works, but I also think it’s baked in a level of confusion and discomfort in his team. They don’t always look natural playing in that 3-4-2-1, and, as last week vs. St. Louis showed, they don’t always look natural playing in that 4-3-3. There’s often this weird lack of conviction.
The way it’s manifested is in the standings, where Austin were as high as second in the West earlier this season and (even more worryingly in my opinion) in the underlying numbers:
- They haven’t won the single-game xG battle outright in almost two months.
- They have lost the single-game xG battle in nine of their past 11 league matches, which is a large enough sample size to matter.
Their xG differential over that 11-game stretch, as per Opta, is -0.50 per 90. That would be 29th in the league – worse than the LA Galaxy, worse than CF Montréal, worse than D.C. United! – ahead of only Sporting KC if it were their number for the year.
They are not playing great soccer right now, and haven’t been for a while. It hasn’t mattered what lineups or formations Estévez has tried; none of it has quite worked, and they’re kind of just hanging on right now.
LAFC
For the past month, it’s been “give it to Son and Bouanga and get out of the way.” That’s worked a charm, hasn’t it? I’m a big fan of David Martínez and I’ve always loved Ebobisse, but something tells me those two guys won’t be quite as devastating a pair in this one (if they are, indeed, both on the front line to start).
I expect them there, with Moran alongside Martínez underneath Ebobisse in the 3-4-2-1 Cherundolo’s had his team lined up in since late summer. This is what their network passing graphic looked like on Wednesday night:
Playing that shape both in and out of possession has simplified things for the backline he’s had to rebuild on the fly following the season-ending injury to Aaron Long, and all three of the regular backline starters – Nkosi Tafari in the middle, flanked by Eddie Segura and newcomer Ryan Porteous – have responded.
With that type of foundation, the wingbacks have been released higher and wider, and earlier in the play, to draw opposing defenders towards the touchline. That, of course, has opened up space for Son and Bouanga, and that’s where goals come from.
I fully expect to see the same system, and more than anything else, Austin need to be aware of the big, right-to-left switches that Tafari hits. When one of those lands on the foot of the left wingback, LAFC are a problem (no matter who it is playing up top at the moment).
As I said, Estévez likes to flip between the 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1, and I think he'll land on the 3-4-2-1 for this one. Mirroring an opponent’s shape is a very simple tactical adjustment that can pay dividends, and is especially useful for preventing the type of big switches described above (if it’s a 3-4-2-1 vs. a 3-4-2-1, the wingbacks essentially man-mark each other).
They’ve got a few more missing pieces than LAFC, so I’m spitballing a bit here.
No reason to think they won’t go with the same XI that got them the midweek win vs. Toronto.
