Weāre halfway through the season. That means your team still has half a season to look forward to⦠or worry about.
Hereās why each club should be feeling optimistic and maybe not so optimistic about the rest of 2024.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
It canāt get any worse, right? The Five Stripes have underperformed their underlying numbers by a comical amount and havenāt caught any breaks with injuries. Things should get better even if no one touches anything.
Even still, big changes are coming. Atlanta fans have a new manager and (likely) DP No. 9 to look forward to. And thatās at the very least. Thereās every reason to trust club president and CEO Garth Lagerwey will get those moves right.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
This year is a total bummer almost no matter what happens. Atlanta couldnāt find a groove at the start of the year, their confidence faltered, their luck somehow got worse and now they arenāt going to come anywhere close to living up to preseason expectations.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Rodolfo Borrell finally has the stove hot enough to start cooking. Heās already jettisoned Emiliano Rigoni in favor of new DP winger Osman Bukari and he likely wonāt stop there. The roster still needs some reshaping and thereās reason to believe Borrell can get this right.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Same as it ever was. Austin canāt outrun their underlying numbers into infinity. Per American Soccer Analysis, only two teams have a lower expected points-per-game rate. In most years, theyād be a Wooden Spoon contender. Borrell has serious work to do and we donāt have proof of concept for his ability to build a quality MLS team.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Teams all over the league wish they were in Charlotteās position. Dean Smith has this team playing elite defense and Charlotte can add two attacking DPs in the upcoming window. If they get those right ā theyāre willing to spend at the kind of level that makes those signings hard to get wrong ā the comparison will be Gary Smithās Nashville but with multiple attacking options. The floor for that kind of side is about as high as it gets.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
What if they miss on those DPs? This is the same club that brought in Kamil Jozwiak and Enzo Copetti. Having money to spend helps, but it doesnāt guarantee anything. If they donāt get those moves right, theyāre just Nashville without Hany Mukhtar.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Maybe Chicago find a way to move on from and replace Xherdan Shaqiri this summer? Theyāve definitely been better in the last three games with Brian GutiĆ©rrez bearing the creative burden. Five points from three games isnāt nothing!
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Theyāve made the playoffs twice since 2010. This team is well-acquainted with struggle.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Cincy canāt miss. They lost multiple key players last offseason and have shrugged it off like itās nothing. Theyāre a Supportersā Shield contender for the second straight year and itās highly likely theyāll move on from Aaron Boupendza this summer window and bring in a new DP No. 9. If that guy is a fit, there arenāt many teams that will be able to slow this group down.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Maybe they donāt get that move right? Maybe they canāt keep winning every one-goal game they get in forever? I donāt know; it feels like weāre reaching here.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Year one of Coloradoās revamp is going about as well as anyone could have hoped. Theyāre only eighth in the West right now, but theyāre not trailing too far behind the others in the middle of the conference. After last yearās last-place finish, thatās considerable progress. Even KĆ©vin Cabral has meaningful contributions.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Itās unclear how theyāll sort out whatās happening at goalkeeper. Per FBref, Zack Steffen has been the worst shot-stopper in MLS by a considerable distance. Theyāve given up 31 goals on 22.2 post-shot xG faced. Basically, their current goal differential of -2 would be +7 with average goalkeeping.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Wilfried Nancy is still here. Cucho is still here. Darlington Nagbe is still here. You donāt need much more than that to be successful in MLS.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
It has, uh, gotten kind of weird since the Concacaf Champions Cup final. President and GM Tim Bezbatchenko is gone, leading to Issa Tallās promotion. Aidan Morris is (reportedly) gone. Assistant GM Corey Wray is unexpectedly gone. Just imagine if someone swoops in for Nancy. This already feels like a drastically different club and itās almost certain that more changes will be on the way eventually.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
A new manager means a brand new day, right? And DP forward Petar Musa seems like the genuine product.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Thereās a ton of work to do. They arenāt getting Paxton Pomykal back until 2025 and guys like Alan Velasco and Geovane Jesus remain out injured. Maybe itās time for a reset?
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
The underlying numbers are so good. Theyāre second in the league in expected points. If they were even just having average luck/finishing, they would be on 1.73 points per game instead of 1.12. Eventually, this has to regress to the mean. Even if itās just a little.
The bottom line is that averaging the leagueās second-best expected points-per-game mark in the first half of your new head coachās first season is an excellent sign.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
All that being said, what if D.C. missed their window? They blew one too many leads at the start of the year and thereās no guarantee theyāll keep playing at a high level. There are still holes in this roster and theyāll be playing catch up the rest of the season. They can still be a playoff team, but the ceiling they could have reached has already disappeared.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
The general bones of last yearās team that made the Western Conference Final are still there. Theyāre solid defensively and through midfield. They just need some help in attack. Like, a lot of help. A new DP attacker or two is possible though.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
There are no guarantees that attacking help is coming. And there are no guarantees that whoever does arrive will be any good. Houston may be stuck trying to win as many 1-0 games as possible for a while.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
The underlying numbers are the best in the league and the eye test is getting better week over week. LAFC arenāt just relying solely on transition moments and magic from Denis Bouanga. Theyāre playing excellent ball and theyāre set to add multiple pieces this summer. They could easily finish first in the West, easily win the Supportersā Shield and easily grab another trophy or two along the way.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Itās hard to see how this could go south at this point, but the pathway to a disappointing ending probably starts and ends with Olivier Giroud failing to produce at the level theyāre hoping for. If heās not scoring and becomes a net negative defensively, things could be derailed a bit.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Few attacks can go punch-for-punch with this team. Riqui Puig is as good a pure No. 10 as weāve seen in MLS and the rest of their front four is excellent. Oh, and donāt overlook the excellent work Gastón Brugman does in midfield. A home playoff spot is almost definitely on the way.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
LA are not good defensively and theyāre ultra-reliant on Puig. As of now, this is a good team that doesnāt seem solid enough across the board to truly be considered a contender. With how good the attack has been, that feels like a disappointment.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Messi = good.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
There are real problems defensively. The six goals Inter Miami allowed in two home games the week before the June international break felt like the seams coming undone for a team thatās been incredibly lucky relative to their underlying numbers this season.
That overperformance has come in large part from Lionel Messi and Luis SuĆ”rez being superhumans. Both will be absent for multiple games during Copa AmĆ©rica. Their Supportersā Shield chances could evaporate quickly. After that, it would be down to Leagues Cup and MLS Cup for them to win a trophy this season.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Emanuel Reynoso is gone for good and the Loons have been better than ever without him. Tani Oluwaseyi is becoming a star, Robin Lod has been an All-Star-caliber creator and every non-Reynoso thing that could have gone right has gone right this year. Now heās gone, they can go out and add another DP.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
What if Oluwaseyi and Lod take a step back? Despite great underlying numbers, Oluwaseyi should at least come back to Earth a little bit just because heās a young player in his first full season. Lod has had a lot of luck when it comes to assists. A new DP may dull the pain of a step back a bit, but thereās a chance the Loons have a tough time maintaining this level of performance.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
It's still year one under a new coach. And MontrĆ©al should be getting key attacking pieces like Mahala Opoku and MatĆas Cóccaro back soon. Thereās a lot of room to grow.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Former sporting director Olivier Renard is gone and thereās work to do before this roster can compete at a high level again. Getting healthy will solve some of that, but it wonāt solve all of that. A playoff appearance this year is unlikely. From there⦠well, without Renard around, who knows?
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
A new manager and more expansive soccer could be on the way. Maybe that will also lead to a roster-building approach thatās a bit more interesting as well.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Itās been a rough year. And the future isnāt going to feel all that bright if Hany Mukhtar keeps trending the way heās trending. After three straight MVP-caliber seasons, heās finally slowed down a little. Itās impressive he went full speed for this long after carrying this attack on his back. Maybe a new manager can revitalize Mukhtar and this attack as a whole.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Two straight wins! Theyāre only six points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand!
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Even with those two straight wins, the Revs are on pace to have the worst underlying numbers since 2013 Chivas USA. It might get a little better. āA lot betterā feels off the table.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
The talent is finally translating into an effective attack. It took a while for Nick Cushing and company to find their footing, but this particular concoction of young attackers has turned New York City FC into one of the most dynamic sides in the league. Theyāre eighth in the league in xG created per game. Thatās all you really need when you have a midfield pairing of James Sands and Keaton Parks, and Matt Freese putting up outstanding numbers in goal.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Theyāre still the youngest team in the league and young players have a tougher time maintaining consistency. There will eventually be a lull for this group. How are they going to handle it?
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
This is the best Red Bulls side since 2018. Emil Forsberg has been everything they could have asked for, Lewis Morgan looks like he hasnāt missed a beat and the rest of the team is doing typically hard-nosed Red Bulls-y things with an added ability to play with the ball at their feet as needed. They have some different clubs in the bag for the first time in a long while and they have space to add a DP this upcoming transfer window.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Probably for the normal Red Bulls reasons.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Uhhhhhhhh⦠man, I donāt know. Orlando got it together last year in the second half. Maybe they can do it again? Maybe they make some major moves this summer?
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Nothing is clicking in attack, Pedro Gallese has taken a nosedive in goal, Luis Muriel hasnāt lived up to his price tag, the underlying numbers arenāt good, et cetera. Itās a long list.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
This is still the same group weāve seen put together excellent season after excellent season. Itās impossible to count them out. And their underlying numbers continue to be very good.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
It feels like nearly everyone has regressed and now it seems like JuliĆ”n Carranza could be on his way out. They may not blow it all up this summer, but this could be the start of a new era for Philadelphia. Thatās going to involve some growing pains.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Itās year one under a new manager, Evander has taken a leap forward and theyāre set to bring in another DP. It hasnāt been great, but it has been totally fine in Phil Nevilleās first season.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Portland arenāt all that bad, but they arenāt all that good either. They need more time and a few more upgrades to start truly competing again in the West.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
This could not be going any better. Theyāre on top of the West, Chicho Arango has gone turbo-nuclear and the underlying numbers are outstanding, too. Emeka Eneli is a rising star and AndrĆ©s Gómez may already be one. Itās pretty much impossible to find anything to complain about.
Oh, wait! They could add a DP this summer. Thereās room to make this team even better.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
This is it, RSL fans. This is the year. The odds that it gets better than this in 2025 or anytime soon just arenāt that high in MLS. Players cool off, players get pulled to other teams, changes are made and things are just different. Enjoy it while you can.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Theyāre relatively decent in attack. DP No. 10 HernĆ”n López is a nice addition and theyāve been nearly as unlucky as D.C. and Atlanta when it comes to their underlying numbers this year.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Even if San Jose do trend back toward the mean here, they still have an uphill climb towards being a good team. Getting better doesnāt mean getting good. Things are complicated even further by their near league-worst goalkeeping so far. They probably arenāt a Wooden Spoon-caliber team, but theyāre not a playoff team either.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
One of these days, Pedro de la Vega is going to be healthy.
Beyond that⦠well, maybe weāve reached the point where everyone is comfortable hitting the reset button on this group. Seattle need change beyond de la Vega and this uncomfortably disappointing season might be enough to force some movement.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Even if they were matching their expected points-per-game rate, theyād be averaging just 1.38 points per game. That would put them sixth or seventh in the West. Weāre a long, long way from this team being picked as a near-unanimous first-place finisher in preseason.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Itās honestly the same as Seattle. This year has been disappointing enough to encourage big changes. Sporting KC can get to work on refreshing this roster soon.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
They wonāt be able to fix everything immediately. The red-hot run to a playoff spot probably isnāt coming. This year already feels like a wash.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Eduard Lƶwen is back in the lineup and he improves St. Louis in every phase of the game. Maybe he can turn some of the many (many) draws theyāve been earning into wins.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
Thereās not a ton of flexibility at the top of the roster and theyāll have to do some work to find more value in the middle. Their penance for last yearās incredible run might be a middling second season.
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
Practically everyone had Toronto finishing at the bottom of the East. Things in John Herdmanās first year have gone far better than expected. Their DPs seem invested and theyāve found the kind of defensive solidity thatās been absent for years. If they can get Federico Bernardeschi, Lorenzo Insigne and Richie Laryea healthy and on the field at the same time, another step forward is on the table.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
It feels like theyāre already pushing up against their ceiling. Unless some key pieces arrive this summer, they still have work to do on this roster before itās a contender. Can you really complain about that after last season though?
Hope springs eternal becauseā¦
This is a good team.
Sadness looms becauseā¦
This is pretty much the same exact "good but not great" team theyāve been for a while now. Itās not getting worse. But itās not getting better either. Life in purgatory can be tough.