Voices: Sam Jones

MLS Cup pressure: Ranking every Conference Semifinalist

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Round One brought chaos in the Eastern Conference, changing expectations for the entire Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs field.

We’ve gone from having multiple sides desperate to capitalize on an open championship window to multiple sides who are just glad to be here. That’s ratcheted up the pressure for a few teams – and then some.

Here’s who’s feeling the weight of expectations the most, ranked from “what a time to be alive” to “they will not let me back home if I fail.”

  • Seed: Eastern Conference No. 9
  • Round One: 2-1 series win vs. Inter Miami CF
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 24 at Orlando City SC (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Atlanta are the definition of “just happy to be here.”

That doesn’t mean they have no championship aspirations; it just means they’re fully aware that everything that’s happened over the last few weeks has been a fever dream. They needed plenty of moments to break their way to even make the playoffs. They know they’re on just about the only timeline in existence where they’re in the Conference Semifinals, having eliminated Lionel Messi and Supporters' Shield winners Inter Miami CF. Anything from here on out is just a bonus.

It’s also the first bit of positive momentum they’ve had in a long time. Whatever happens next, they’ll go into what might be the biggest offseason in club history having gotten way more out of 2024 than they ever could have expected after dismissing their head coach (Gonzalo Pineda) midseason and transferring out two DPs (Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakoumakis) this summer.

  • Seed: Eastern Conference No. 7
  • Round One: 2-0 series win vs. Columbus Crew
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 23 at New York City FC (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

The Red Bulls pulled off a huge upset in Round One, sweeping defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew.

They’re only above Atlanta when it comes to pressure because they spent most of the season in a playoff spot. Otherwise, no one had any real expectations for this group heading into the postseason. Plus, ya know, does anyone really expect the Red Bulls to win in the playoffs? It kind of feels like the club and fanbase have accepted their fate during this 15-year playoff run.

If Emil Forsberg, Lewis Morgan and Carlos Coronel get New York to MLS Cup, it will feel like a blessing from a higher power.

  • Seed: Western Conference No. 6
  • Round One: 2-0 series win vs. Real Salt Lake
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 24 at LA Galaxy (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)

We could have probably just called it a three-way tie between Atlanta, New York and Minnesota.

The Loons looked down and out during the middle of the summer before finding themselves again post-Leagues Cup. With two new DPs (Kelvin Yeboah and Joaquín Pereyra) and a first-year manager (Eric Ramsay), no one is really expecting them to get the job done. That doesn’t mean they can’t. It just means that no one is expecting or demanding them to. The pressure is low.

If Minnesota get past the Galaxy, they'll need another monster performance from goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair. He came up clutch in Round One, securing two PK shootout wins over RSL.

  • Seed: Eastern Conference No. 6
  • Round One: 2-1 series win vs. FC Cincinnati
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 23 vs. New York Red Bulls (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Expectations are different for NYCFC.

They’ve been among the best and most consistent Eastern Conference teams since joining MLS in 2015. They’re just three years removed from winning MLS Cup. And while this season hasn’t been perfect, they have an open window to get another title after taking down FC Cincinnati in Round One.

They'll host the Hudson River Derby Conference Semifinal, where a win books a trip to a beatable Orlando City side or hosting against underdog Atlanta. On top of that, there always seems to be a general level of pressure around Nick Cushing. It’s been a weird tenure.

  • Seed: Western Conference No. 4
  • Round One: 2-0 series win vs. Houston Dynamo FC
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 23 at LAFC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

It’s Seattle. Even when they aren’t at their best, there’s an expectation that they can win a title.

It’s not just about MLS Cup, though. At this point, the Sounders would likely take any win over LAFC. It’s been 10 matches since Seattle got the better of them. Another loss against LAFC – it’d be Seattle’s ninth in 11 matches, including four straight elimination games – wouldn’t go over well.

Not that Brian Schmetzer's squad needs any reminding.

  • Seed: Western Conference No. 2
  • Round One: 2-0 series win vs. Colorado Rapids
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 24 vs. Minnesota United FC (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)

It’s been a decade since the Galaxy’s last MLS Cup title. And, so far, the best Galaxy team in a decade has been gifted what we’ll politely call a “manageable” side of the bracket. The Rapids were no match for Riqui Puig and Gabriel Pec, and Minnesota are still the No. 6 seed despite being much improved.

I’d bet most Galaxy fans are just happy to see the team back among the league’s favorites. But with LAFC their biggest remaining challenger, LA will be well aware that the universe is tilting in their favor. You only get so many clear shots at winning a title.

  • Seed: Eastern Conference No. 4
  • Round One: 2-1 series win vs. Charlotte FC
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 24 vs. Atlanta United (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Inter Miami, Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati are all out. Orlando City are the only top-four seed remaining in the East.

The Lions stood in the corner wrestling with Charlotte while the rest of the East’s superpowers disappeared, then stumbled into back-to-back home games with a conference title on the line. They have been gifted the cleanest possible path to MLS Cup. The universe has cleared the way.

If Facundo Torres & Co. don’t take advantage of this, it won’t just be Orlando fans who are disappointed in them. Everyone should be. At least a little. People hate when others don’t take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.

  • Seed: Western Conference No. 1
  • Round One: 2-1 series win vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  • Conference Semifinals: Nov. 23 vs. Seattle Sounders FC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

LAFC spend big, win big and go into every season with high expectations. Yeah, they won MLS Cup two years ago, but they want more.

With most of the rest of the league’s elite already out of the way and hosting rights the rest of the way, they’re the clear favorite to win MLS Cup on Dec. 7.

Anything else is a failure for Denis Bouanga & Co.